Rain may arrive November 11 to 12, after a very dry start

By The Downspout · Posted Nov 6, 2026 · 3 min read

The National Weather Service says dry weather lasts through early next week, and rain is possible around Wednesday and Thursday, November 11 and 12. It is too early to say how much. Santa Rosa has had 17.7 percent of its average rain through November 1. A separate state rule on minimum Russian River flows is up for renewal after November 15.

What this is

Rain is possible next week after a very dry start to the season. Two things come together here: the rain forecast, and a state rule on how much water must stay in the Russian River.

The National Weather Service is the national weather forecaster. We used its San Francisco Bay Area forecast, issued Friday, November 6, 2026.

Sonoma Water is the local water agency that decides how much water to release from Lake Mendocino and Lake Sonoma. It also posts how much rain has fallen so far this year.

What happened

The Weather Service says dry weather lasts through early next week.

It then says forecasters agree a storm will reach the coast mid to late next week. The window opens around Wednesday and Thursday, November 11 and 12.

They do not agree on how much rain. The range is from 0.01 inches to 1.4 inches. The Weather Service says it is too early to pin down.

Sonoma Water's rain count, through November 1, shows how dry the start has been:

Santa Rosa has had 0.34 inches. That is 17.7 percent of average.
Ukiah has had 0.13 inches. That is 6.7 percent of average.

The river flow rule that is up for renewal

The State Water Resources Control Board is the state water regulator. It sets how much water must keep flowing in the Russian River.

Sonoma Water has asked the board to change that rule for a limited time. The board's current order ends November 15, 2026. Sonoma Water asks for a new order that runs 180 days, from November 16, 2026 to May 14, 2027.

The Sonoma Water page we read lists this request and no new order. This is a request, not a decision. For more, see our earlier post on the request.

Under the request, each year would be called Normal, Dry or Critical, based on how full Lake Mendocino is. That label sets the lowest river flow allowed. Sonoma Water says the state approved the same method in earlier years.

What it means for you

If you want to know whether rain is coming, check the Weather Service's Bay Area forecast again before Wednesday. Our suggestion: look on Tuesday, November 10.
If you have gutters and downspouts, our suggestion is to clear leaves out of them before Wednesday, so rain runs where you want it.
If you get water from a city or water district, Sonoma Water says conservation requirements are still in place. Ask your water provider what applies to you.
If you care about the river, watch whether the board approves Sonoma Water's request. Sonoma Water posts updates on its request page.

Our leaning: after a dry start, each storm matters more to creeks and fish. The pages we read do not say what this rain will do for the river.

What happens next

The Weather Service will update its forecast as the storm gets closer. The current river flow order ends November 15. Sonoma Water has asked for the next one to start November 16.

The same forecast says tides could run higher during Thanksgiving week. We cover tides in our post on the bay shore flood advisory.

Where this came from

The National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area forecast discussion, issued 3:19 a.m. Friday, November 6, 2026. Sonoma Water's Current Water Supply Levels page, with rain through November 1, and its Temporary Urgency Change Petitions page, including its questions and answers. Read November 6.

Sources

Checked 2026-11-06. Rules and programs change. If something here is out of date, the source above wins. Spot an error? See our corrections policy.