First rain now looks like Friday, November 13, not November 11 to 12

By The Downspout · Posted Nov 8, 2026 · 3 min read

The National Weather Service now says dry, warmer than normal weather lasts through Wednesday, November 11. Rain could start as early as Friday, November 13, and is likely to continue into the weekend. This replaces the November 11 to 12 window we reported on November 6. How much rain is not known yet.

Listen to this article

Read aloud by an AI voice.

What changed

Rain now looks like it starts as early as Friday, November 13. Our November 6 post said Wednesday and Thursday, November 11 and 12. The forecast has moved about a day or two later.

The National Weather Service is the national weather forecaster. We used the written forecast it posts for the San Francisco Bay Area, updated early Sunday morning, November 8.

What happened

A cold front came in early Sunday. The Weather Service says it brings no rain to the Bay Area.

Dry weather continues. Light winds blowing from the land toward the ocean start Monday night. Temperatures stay above normal through Wednesday.

The Weather Service says Thursday is roughly when conditions begin to change. A trough, an area of low pressure high in the air, approaches the coast, and the wind turns to blow from the south-southwest.

Rain could arrive "as early as Friday" and is "likely to persist into the weekend."

The Weather Service does not yet say how much rain. It says details and amounts will be refined as the event gets closer. It adds one line of advice: "begin preparations for the winter season."

How dry the season has been so far

Sonoma Water is the local water agency. Its page showed these rain totals for this water year when we read it on November 8. Its weekly rain figures on the page run through November 1.

Santa Rosa: 0.34 inches, which is 17.7 percent of average.
Ukiah: 0.13 inches, which is 6.7 percent of average.

That is a very dry start.

What it means for you

If you have gutters and downspouts, our suggestion is to clear them before rain could start on Friday.
If you have a culvert, that is a pipe that carries a creek or ditch under a road or driveway. The North Coast Water Board, the state regional water board that handles creek work here, says routine cleaning needs no permit when no water is flowing in the pipe. Our earlier post explains what counts as routine cleaning.
If you want the latest forecast, check the Weather Service Bay Area forecast again on Thursday, November 12. That is our suggestion, not an official step.

Our view: after a very dry start, early storms help creeks and fish. The sources we read do not say what this storm will do for the Russian River.

What happens next

The Weather Service will update its forecast as the event gets closer.

A separate item: the state sets minimum flows for the Russian River, and the current rule ends November 15, 2026. Sonoma Water has asked the State Water Resources Control Board, the state water regulator, for a new temporary rule covering November 16, 2026 to May 14, 2027. Sonoma Water's page showed no new order when we read it on November 8. This is a request, not a decision. Our November 6 post has more.

A separate Coastal Flood Advisory for high tides along the bay shore runs until 4 p.m. Friday, November 13. See our post on the advisory.

Where this came from

The National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area forecast discussion, issued 3:52 a.m. Sunday, November 8, 2026, with its long-term outlook written at 11:33 p.m. Saturday, November 7. Sonoma Water's Current Water Supply Levels page and its Temporary Urgency Change Petitions page, which covers requests to change river flow rules. The North Coast Water Board's emergency permitting guidance dated October 1, 2026. Read November 8.

Sources

Checked 2026-11-08. Rules and programs change. If something here is out of date, the source above wins. Spot an error? See our corrections policy.